OSD / Studio / Price Alignment

Price Alignment — soft-vs-sharp drift

How Price Alignment works

Soft books drift away from sharp consensus over time — that drift is where most of our edge comes from. This page measures how far each soft book sits from sharp consensus, by market and league, and how that gap evolves.

What this measures vs. the runtime gate

Runtime gate (alignMaxOddsDiff): per-bet check at evaluation time — is THIS candidate too far from the rest of the market? Stale-line-trap detection. Documented in docs/gates.md#align-max-odds-diff.
This page: aggregate analysis across all settled bets — what's the typical soft-vs-sharp drift for each (book, league, market) combination? Used to tune the runtime thresholds that the gate uses, not to make per-bet decisions.

Why it's useful

Identifies books that drift consistently (predictable +EV producers) vs. books that flip directions randomly (noise).
Per-(book, league) drift signatures inform scoped alignMaxOddsDiff overrides — books with naturally larger drift need looser thresholds.
Detects regime shifts — a book that used to drift +30¢ on average and now drifts 0¢ has likely tightened its model and should be deprioritized.

What this Studio page does

Replays settled-position history grouped by (book, league, market, mode, flow) and plots the distribution of candidateOdds − sharpFair for each cell. Tail width = drift volatility. Median offset = typical edge for that scope. Use the per-cell views to identify scope-specific tuning targets.

Research/replay tool — informs runtime threshold tuning. Not a runtime gate itself. The runtime alignment gate's canonical contract is in docs/gates.md#align-max-odds-diff.

Data

Remote API Base URL

Remote User ID

Remote API Key

Load remote positions to begin.

Controls

Run Settings

Run Mode

Objective Metric This is the score the optimizer maximizes when ranking candidates.

Minimum Bets for Recommendation Requires at least this many bets for a recommendation to be eligible.

Sweep Setup

Single sweep tests one knob across a range.

Parameter

Explicit Values (comma list, optional)

From

Step

Minimum Sharps Required 0 disables sharp-count gating.

Max Combo Evaluations Run-engine safety cap for Grid and Sharp sweeps (not a segment filter).

Guardrails

Min Distinct Days Requires recommendations to span at least this many settled days. Set 0 to disable.

Max Worst-Day Degradation ($) Rejects recommendations when worst-day profit drops by more than this amount. Set 0 to disable.

Min Green Day Rate (0-1) Requires this minimum share of profitable days for recommendations. Set 0 to disable.

Segment Filters

Sub-selection filters below are applied after Run Mode + Objective Metric.

Flow

Mode

League

Book

Market Family

Data Quality & Output

Optional Config Overrides JSON (applied last)

Allow overrides

Missing Data Policy

Rows to Show

Load remote positions to start.

Summary

Rows Loaded

Settled Matched

Baseline (ROI)

Best Delta

Baseline snapshot: ROI -, Profit -, Win Rate -, Bets -

This is historical replay on bets you already took. It cannot estimate bets that were never placed.

Alignment: Candidate Odds

Alignment: Sharp Odds >=1 / >=2

Alignment Inputs Ready

Min Alignment Rows

Parameter results are ranked here first. In Auto mode, charts below use the top-ranked parameter row.

Param	Scope	Status	Baseline	Best	Bets (best/baseline) within scope	Baseline Score	Best Score	Delta

Run a single-parameter sweep or Auto mode to populate these charts.

Shaded band = top-performing value zone (top 20% by selected objective metric).

Gold dot = best score in this sweep.

Line + dots = metric result for each tested value.

X-axis = tested parameter value.

ROI Curve

Run a single-parameter sweep (or Auto mode) to render ROI curve.

Profit Curve

Run a single-parameter sweep (or Auto mode) to render profit curve.

Win Rate Curve

Run a single-parameter sweep (or Auto mode) to render win-rate curve.

Bet Count Curve

Run a single-parameter sweep (or Auto mode) to render bet-count curve.

Distribution

Rows are tested parameter values. Each row shows aggregate results for that value.

Parameter Value	Bets	Pass Rate	Distinct Days	Green Day %	Worst Day	Win Rate	ROI	Profit	Stake	Avg EV