Leak Detector — Bayesian segment scanner

What this is. Slices settled positions across book × league × market × flow × mode × sharp pool × trajectory tag × game state × stake bucket up to depth-4, applies normal-conjugate Bayesian shrinkage toward the system ROI prior N(+0.03, 0.10²), and flags segments with persistently negative ROI under chained discipline (sample size + posterior effect + tail probability + chronological split-sample persistence). Two tiers: candidate = n≥100, posterior ROI ≤ −5%, P(<−2%) ≥ 0.85, persistence pass. Confirmed = same as candidate plus n_train≥200, posterior ROI ≤ −7%, P(<−2%) ≥ 0.95, both halves ≤ −3%, BH-FDR pass at q=0.10, replicates on 20% holdout. Pairs with the Segment Explorer (no-shrinkage bootstrap CIs) — same data, different lens.